特朗普是中國人眼中的傻瓜 (中英文對照)◎ THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN/ 紐約時報/ 2017-06-29

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THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN 2017年6月29日

HONG KONG — Having just traveled to New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, China, Taiwan and now Hong Kong, I can say without an ounce of exaggeration that more than a few Asia-Pacific business and political leaders have taken President Trump’s measure and concluded that — far from being a savvy negotiator — he’s a sucker who’s shrinking U.S. influence in this region and helping make China great again.

香港——剛剛走訪完紐西蘭、澳洲、韓國、中國、台灣,現在又來到香港,我可以毫不誇張地講,不少亞太地區的商業和政治領袖已經對川普總統做過了評估,並且得出結論:他遠不是一個精明的談判者,而是一個容易受騙的傻瓜,他在削弱美國在該地區的影響,幫助中國恢復偉大榮光。

These investors, trade experts and government officials are still stunned by an event that got next to no attention in the U.S. but was an earthquake out here — and a gift that will keep on giving America’s allies pain and China gain for years to come. That was Trump’s decision to tear up the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade deal in his first week in office — clearly without having read it or understanding its vast geo-economic implications.

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這些投資者、貿易專家和政府官員依然在為一件事感到震驚,此事在美國已經幾乎沒人關注,但在這裡猶如一場地震。這是美國拱手讓出的一個機會,在接下來的歲月裡會給美國的盟友帶來持續的痛苦,而讓中國獲利。那就是川普的一項決定:在上任第一週便撕毀12個國家達成的跨太平洋夥伴關係(Trans-Pacific Partnership,簡稱TPP)自由貿易協定——他顯然不曾認真研究這項協定,也不明白此舉會帶來多大的地緣經濟影響。

(Trump was so ignorant about TPP that when he was asked about it in a campaign debate in November 2015 he suggested that China was part of it, which it very much is not.)

(川普在TPP問題上非常無知,在2015年11月進行的一場競選辯論中被問到這個話題時,他曾表示中國也是其中的成員國,這顯然大錯特錯。)

 

Trump simply threw away the single most valuable tool America had for shaping the geo-economic future of the region our way and for pressuring China to open its markets. Trump is now trying to negotiate trade openings with China alone — as opposed to negotiating with China as the head of a 12-nation TPP trading bloc that was based on U.S. values and interests and that controlled 40 percent of the global economy.

美國要想以自己的方式重塑該地區的地緣經濟未來、向中國施壓,使其開放市場,TPP堪稱最有價值的工具,而川普就這麼扔掉了它, 現在,川普試圖獨自與中國就貿易開放問題進行談判——而不是作為TPP12國貿易聯盟的首腦與之協商,要知道,這個聯盟是以美國價值觀和利益為基礎,又控制著40%的全球經濟。

It is hard to think of anything more stupid. And China’s trade hard-liners are surely laughing in their sleeves.

沒有比這更傻的事了。中國的貿易強硬派肯定在偷笑。

“When Trump did away with TPP, all your allies’ confidence in the U.S. collapsed,” a senior Hong Kong official told me.

「當川普退出TPP,你們的盟友對美國所有的信心都崩塌了,」一位香港高層官員對我講道。

“After America stopped TPP, everyone is now looking to China,” added Jonathan Koon-shum Choi, chairman of the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong. “But China is very smart — just keeping its mouth shut.”

「美國廢掉了TPP,現在所有國家都在指望中國,」香港中華總商會(Chinese General Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong)會長蔡冠深(Jonathan Koon-shum Choi)說。「但中國很聰明——它就一直不發聲。」

Beijing is now quietly encouraging everyone in the neighborhood to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, China’s free-trade competitor to TPP, which, unlike TPP, lacks environmental or labor standards; China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; and its One Belt, One Road development project.

北京在悄悄鼓勵這個地區的所有國家加入區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)、中國的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank)和「一帶一路」發展項目,其中,區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定是由中國牽頭達成的自由貿易協定,是TPP的競爭對手,與TPP不同的是,它缺少環境或勞工標準。

Carrie Lam, the new chief executive of Hong Kong, told me that TPP countries like Australia are quickly reaching out to Hong Kong to forge closer and freer trade ties, now that the Americans have pulled TPP down. It’s a “pity” that the Americans are leaving, she said, but “this will give our country this opportunity to lead.” China is not just looking for growth, she added, but also for “influence.”

新任香港特首林鄭月娥(Carrie Lam)告訴我,因為美國已經讓TPP垮掉了,澳洲等TPP成員國正在迅速地與香港接觸,以達成更緊密、更自由的貿易關係。她表示,美國退出TPP是很「遺憾」,但「這讓我們國家有機會成為領導者」。她還提到,中國尋求的不只是增長,還有「影響力」。

Just to remind: TPP was a free-trade agreement that the Obama team forged with Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

我只想提醒大家:TPP是歐巴馬團隊與澳洲、汶萊、加拿大、智利、日本、馬來西亞、墨西哥、紐西蘭、秘魯、新加坡和越南達成的一項自由貿易協定。

It was not only the largest free-trade agreement in history, it was the best ever for U.S. workers, closing loopholes Nafta had left open. TPP included restrictions on foreign state-owned enterprises that dumped subsidized products into our markets, intellectual property protections for rising U.S. technologies — like free access for all cloud computing services — but also anti-human-trafficking provisions that prohibited turning guest workers into slave labor, a ban on trafficking in endangered wildlife parts, a requirement that signatories permit their workers to form independent trade unions to collectively bargain and the elimination of all child labor practices — all to level the playing field with American workers.

它不僅是歷史上規模最大的自由貿易協議,也是對美國工人最有利的一個,彌補了北美自由貿易協定(Nafta)中的漏洞。TPP不僅限制外國國有企業向我們的市場傾銷補貼產品,保護不斷增強的美國科技公司的知識產權(比如自由獲取所有雲端計算服務),它還包括一些防止販賣人口的條款,比如禁止將外籍工人當作苦力,禁止走私瀕危野生動物的器官,要求籤署國允許自己的工人成立獨立的工會,同資方進行集體協商,以及要求取締所有使用童工的行為——這一切都達到了與美國工人齊平的水準。

Yes, like any trade deal, TPP would have challenged some U.S. workers, but it would have created opportunities for many others, because big economies like Japan and Vietnam were opening their markets. For decades we had allowed Japan to stay way too closed, because it was an ally in the Cold War, and Vietnam, because it was an enemy. Some 80 percent of the goods from our 11 TPP partners were coming into the U.S. duty-free already, while our goods and services were still being hit with 18,000 tariffs in their countries — which TPP eliminated.

沒錯,就像所有貿易協議一樣,TPP會對一些美國工人構成挑戰,但它也會為其他許多人創造機會,因為日本、越南等大經濟體正在開放它們的市場。幾十年來,我們任由日本保持太過封閉的狀態,因為它在冷戰中曾是美國的盟友;越南沒有向美國開放市場,是因為它曾經是敵人。我們的11個TPP夥伴國有大約80%的商品在免稅進入美國市場,但我們的商品和服務在進入他們的國家時卻要被徵收1.8萬項關稅——這些關稅都被TPP取消了。

That’s why the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that U.S. national income would have grown by some $130 billion a year by 2030 with TPP — not huge, just a nice boost for U.S. workers, businesses and diplomats.

因此彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)估計,有了TPP,到2030年,美國的國民收入每年可增長大約1300億美元——數額不算特別大,但對美國工人、企業和外交人員來說也是不小的鼓勵。

“TPP would have encouraged C.E.O.s, logistics managers and others to place their bets on the world’s single largest trading zone, one that would have been dominated by the U.S., the largest and most developed economy in it,” economics writer Adam Davidson observed in The New Yorker.

「TPP本可以鼓勵首席執行官、物流經理等人在這個世界上最大的貿易區下注,這裡有規模最大、最發達的經濟,本可以由美國主導,」經濟評論員亞當·戴維森(Adam Davidson)在《紐約客》(The New Yorker)雜誌上評論道

Countries like Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore made big concessions to the U.S. to be part of TPP — precisely because they wanted America embedded in their own economies, as a hedge against Chinese economic domination. A young Vietnamese businessman I met at a Wharton economic forum in Hong Kong asked me, “Do we have to choose between Russia and China now?”

為加入TPP,日本、越南、馬來西亞和新加坡等國家向美國做出了很大的讓步——主要是因為它們想讓美國融入它們的經濟,以此防範中國經濟的統治地位。在香港舉行的沃頓經濟論壇上,我碰到了一名年輕的越南商人,他問我,「現在我們必須在俄羅斯和中國之間選擇嗎?」

The other people we disappointed, explained James McGregor, author of “One Billion Customers: Lessons From the Front Lines of Doing Business in China,” are China’s economic reformers: They were hoping that the emergence of TPP “would force China to reform its trade practices more along American lines and to open its markets. … We failed the reformers in China.”

《與龍共舞:十億顧客的商機與挑戰》(One Billion Customers: Lessons From the Front Lines of Doing Business in China)一書的作者麥健陸(James McGregor)認為,同樣對我們感到失望的還有中國的經濟改革派:他們原本希望TPP的出現「會迫使中國改革自身的貿易操作,使之更靠近美國的路線,令中國開放自己的市場……我們辜負了中國改革者的期望。」

Out here everyone gets it: China has Trump’s number. Its officials were afraid of him at first — with his tough trade talk. But they quickly realized how easy it was to distract him with shiny objects, like promises to defuse the North Korea threat for him or by giving stale sector-specific trade concessions, such as for American beef exports to China — things China has promised multiple presidents before — that Trump could brag about.

在這裡,所有人都明白這樣一點:中國知道川普在打什麼算盤。一開始,中國的官員對他有點忌憚——因為他發表了強硬的貿易言論。但他們很快就意識到,用其他光鮮的東西分散他的注意力有多麼容易,比如承諾為他減輕朝鮮的威脅,或在特定產業做出並不新鮮的貿易讓步,比如美國對中國的牛肉出口——就是一些中國以前也對不少美國總統承諾過的東西——好給川普一些可以用來吹噓自己的資本。

Beijing watched Trump threaten to abandon America’s adherence to the one-China policy if he did not get trade concessions — and then just fold the minute China’s president, Xi Jinping, said he would not take a phone call from Trump unless he reaffirmed the “One-China” policy.

北京眼看著川普做出威脅,表示如果中國不在貿易上做出讓步,美國就放棄一貫堅持的一個中國政策——之後中國國家主席習近平馬上就做出回應,表示如果美國不重申「一個中國」政策,他就不會接川普的電話。

And China just invited Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on an official visit for early next year, red carpet and all. As my colleague Keith Bradsher reported, China, for the first time, has arrested Chinese labor-rights activists who were working undercover to investigate a Western supply chain — specifically, factories near Hong Kong that made shoes for Ivanka Trump and other brands. Moral of the story: Take care of the emperor’s daughter and everything will be fine.

中國剛剛邀請伊萬卡·川普(Ivanka Trump)和賈里德·庫什納(Jared Kushner)在明年對中國進行正式訪問,會有走紅毯等全套禮儀。就像我的同事基思·布拉德舍(Keith Bradsher)之前報導的,中國第一次逮捕了卧底調查西方企業供應鏈情況的中國勞工權利活動人士——確切地講,是調查香港附近的幾家為伊萬卡·川普等品牌製作鞋子的工廠。這個故事的中心思想是:照顧好皇帝的女兒,一切就都好辦了

You have to admire the Chinese combination of toughness, patience and savvy. One day I hope America again will have a president with such attributes — not a sucker for flattery, not an ignorant ideologue who rips up treaties he hasn’t even read, not a made-for-television negotiator who throws his best leverage out the window — the ability to negotiate with China as the head of a trading bloc controlling 40 percent of the world’s economy — before he sits down at the table.

你不得不欽佩中國人同時表現出的強硬、耐心與精明。我希望有一天美國也能再次出現一位集這些特點於一身的總統——而不是喜歡被奉承的傻瓜,不是連讀都沒讀過就撕毀協議的無知空想家,也不是還沒在談判桌前坐下來就把最好的籌碼扔到了窗外的花架子談判者——這個籌碼就是作為控制40%全球經濟的貿易同盟的首腦與中國談判的能力。

We may call him “Trump” in America, but here it’s pronounced “Chump.”

在美國,我們或許稱他為「Trump」,但在這裡,它被念作「Chump」(意為傻瓜)。

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