War would endanger China’s leadership 兩國漸行漸遠 害怕的是中國 By Christian Fan Jiang 范姜提昂 2017-04-08

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War would endanger China’s leadership

By Christian Fan Jiang 范姜提昂

Late last month, Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits Chairman Chen Deming (陳德銘) said at the Boao Forum that he hoped to visit Taiwan as “an authorized representative from one of two still separately ruled institutions under a single country.”

Chen’s concept of “one country, two administrations” is close to Chinese academic Chu Shulong’s (楚樹龍) “one country, two governments” or Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu’s (洪秀柱) “one China, same interpretation.”

China used to be opposed to “one country, two governments,” calling it a step toward Taiwan abandoning “one China.” Chen’s remarks could be interpreted as Beijing recognizing separate rule of Taiwan and China.

Should President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) respond to Chen’s remarks? Should she follow Beijing’s intentions and recognize that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one country, but without mentioning “one China”?

It is intriguing that Taiwan’s pro-unification media constantly emphasize that “one China” is nonnegotiable, but now “one China” has been replaced by “one country,” along with a proposal of “two administrations.”

Is the policy really not negotiable?

In addition, Chen’s tone when he asked Taiwan to give him a chance to visit was so unfamiliar that he almost did not sound like a communist.
Did pro-unification media not repeatedly warn that “the earth will move and the mountains will shake” if the so-called “1992 consensus” is not accepted? After interaction between Taiwan and China ceased, did Chen’s tone of voice make it sound like the earth was moving and the mountains were shaking?

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) used to insist that the Taiwanese administration was merely a local Chinese government. Beijing now finally recognizing that there is “one country, two administrations” or “one country, two governments” is evidence that the claim that China will attack Taiwan if it insists it is not a local Chinese government is just something the pro-unification camp says.

China is more worried than Taiwan about the two sides going separate ways: China’s worst nightmare would be to see Taiwan pushed toward the US, Japan and South Korea camp. Beijing worries about it, and it worries a lot.

The pro-unification camp says that if Taiwan declares independence, China is sure to attack. Is that true? Despite talk by some retired Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) generals that it could take Taiwan in 100 hours, a war between the two sides would be a life-and-death struggle. Are we sure that it would be Taiwan that would die?

The PLA has not fought a war for decades. If the war does not go as planned — remember the power of the Hsiung Feng III missile that was accidentally on display last year — a small setback for the PLA could cause the Chinese leaders’ political enemies to carry out a coup and cause the CCP leadership to collapse.

CCP leaders are aware of this risk. On the eve of meetings of the Chinese National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference last month, an open letter circulated that made major accusations against Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
Xi needs Taiwan just as much as Taiwan needs him. A war is a dangerous thing. Even if China were to succeed in an invasion, counterattacks by Taiwan and its allies would cause the Chinese economy to backtrack 20 years and could even destroy the CCP.

Knowing this, there is no need for Tsai to patiently tolerate Beijing’s every whim. She should just do what needs to be done.
Christian Fan Jiang is a member of the Northern Taiwan Society.

Translated by Eddy Chang

兩國漸行漸遠 害怕的是中國

范姜提昂(作者為資深電子媒體工作者)

中國海協會會長陳德銘在博鰲論壇說,他該以「一個國家」的「兩個還分治著的機構」授權代表的身分訪台,希望「給我個機會」。

陳德銘說的「一國兩治」與「一國兩府」「一中同表」概念相同,但過去,中國反對「一國兩府」,認為那不過是台灣放棄一中的步驟。如今,若把陳德銘的說法解釋為中國終於承認「分治」的事實,並不為過,統媒就說:「陳德銘的善意,蔡政府聽懂了嗎?」並要求蔡英文親口說出來。

對於小英該不該回應?要不要遵照北京旨意,免說一中,只要承認台海兩國是一個國家?這,很無趣,因為從過去到未來,中共教條就是要這些東西;有趣的是統媒不是一向強調「一中」絕對沒得商量嗎?現在,一中改成一個國家,雖然沒甚麼,但卻意外奉送「兩治」,怎麼說絕對沒得商量?

而且,陳德銘說「給我個機會」這語氣太陌生了,有點不像共產黨;統媒不是一再警告地要動,山要搖了?可是兩國中斷互動之後,陳德銘這語氣,像地要動,山要搖嗎?過去,中共咬死台灣只是地方政府,共產黨終於承認「一國兩治」「一國兩府」這件事告訴我們:台灣堅持,中國就打,是統派說的;其實,最怕台海兩國漸行漸遠的,不是台灣,而是中國;把台灣逼向美日韓陣線,是中國最大噩夢,中國在乎,而且很在乎!

統派會說,台灣敢跑,中國就敢打!是嗎?別看解放軍退將頻頻放話,一百小時內解放台灣。事實上,不打則已,一打就是你死我活,重點是,死的一定是台灣嗎?別忘解放軍已經數十年沒打仗,若戰況溢出計畫外,譬如「雄三誤射」意外展現的實力,只要讓解放軍稍稍受挫,政敵必趁機揭竿而起,黨中央可能垮台

這個風險,中共當局當然清楚,何況,兩會召開前夕,一封羅列習近平五大罪狀的公開信:《就立即罷免習近平同志黨內外一切職務,告全黨、全軍、全國人民書》已經點燃倒習戰火。其實,習近平有求於台灣的,不會少於台灣有求習近平。

戰則終危!侵台戰爭即便打贏,台軍或盟軍的反擊將迫使中國經濟倒退二十年,同樣可能讓共產黨跨台。明乎此,小英沒有必要處處隱忍,做該做的!

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